1. The halving of gas prices since September from $4 to near $2 per gallon has made “drill baby drill” irrelevent. Indeed, Republican Rep. Michelle Bachman (MN) has already claimed victory and moved on. But as an issue that will motivate right leaning Independents and centrist Republicans to vote, its now an impotent issue.
2. Racism ain’t what it used to be. Thats not to say there still isn’t work to do, but these days Americans are more interested in the quality of your ideas than the color of your skin. Thats a downer for McCain, whose “Joe the Plumber” was heard on MSNBC last week saying he would vote for a “Real American.” As opposed to what, Joe? A black American?
3. Obama is simply the better candidate, who ran a better issues focused campaign. He changed all the rules of campaign finance and was able to overcome McCain’s 25 year headstart with a better organized campaign, funded by smaller donors. He stuck to the issues. He showed himself to be the more stable, rational, centrist, predictable, calm, and vibrant candidate.
4. Al Qaida will not launch a spectacular attack between now and election day, per the Republican wet dream. And if they did, it wouldn’t matter — Obama would still win because it would show that Republicans have failed to protect the country and can’t be trusted to do so in the future.
5. Because women are not that stupid. McCain thought women would flock to Palin, simply because she has breasts. He thought that she was answer for Clinton supporters, simply because of her gender. She was a lousy pick for so many reasons that I won’t take those easy pot shots.
But everyone knows that now. She has been vetted, and the vets don’t like her.
And a bonus reason…
6. There is no Bradley effect. “Wealthy Republicans are very anxious about taxes,” Jamie Wasserman, a psychotherapist with a practice on the Upper West Side and in Montclair, N.J., told the NY Times of her patients. “They are not pretending to vote for the black man.”